UDC 338.45: 322.32
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2022.01.01.007
Authors
Olga V. Evseeva
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of
the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow, Russia
Abstract
Predicting the global oil market for the long term, both oil companies and analytical centers use a
systematic approach, striving to take into account all the main factors affecting the oil market, and go beyond a
sectoral approach.
Until recently, the climate factor was considered the main new factor affecting the development of the world oil
market. All forecasting subjects made their forecasts by necessarily connecting scenarios involving the reduction of
carbon dioxide emissions. Recently, there have been forecasts that put zero emissions at the forefront.
However, the oil market is difficult to predict due to the emergence of new and new influential factors that did not
reveal themselves until the moment of forecasting. Today, the most unpredictable factor is the COVID-19 pandemic.
This article is devoted to the analysis of changes in the views of experts in connection with the consequences
of the pandemic COVID-XNUMX.
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, expert, trend, scenario, oil market, world demand, world supply, production, forecast, price, company, strategy, economy, energy.
