UDC 338.1
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2023.09.01.001
Authors
Yury A. Malyukov,
Russian State University named after A. N. Kosygin, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The aim of this article is to describe the implementation of the new “Industry. Resilience”
software program for fuzzy modeling of industries and provide a brief overview of the scientific methods employed
in the program. The “Industry. Resilience” program utilizes the following basic technologies in industry
modeling:
• Matrix aggregate calculator;
• Structuring of industry indices using weighted average technologies;
• Industry R-lenses;
• Algorithms for intelligent data filtering;
• Strategic matrix 4x6 in dynamic execution.
Through the modeling conducted in the program, it is demonstrated that an industry maintains its economic
resilience under the fulfillment of three basic conditions:
a) preserving a minimum net profitability of 5–7%;
b) achieving an asset turnover rate of at least 1.5 times per year;
c) receiving government credit through supplier factoring, resulting in a financial leverage ratio of approximately
1.6.
Together, these conditions are expected to yield a return on equity (ROE) of around 20% annually, ensuring
significant private capital attraction to the industry, particularly with the provision of additional government
guarantees for capital protection (a real option for businesses).
The application of artificial intelligence technologies to economic analysis of industries (including their
resilience) has already yielded impressive scientific results, but the main achievements are anticipated in the
future with the accumulation of data and knowledge across a wide range of economic entities.
Keywords
industry economic resilience, matrix aggregate calculator, strategic matrix, balanced scorecard, industry R-lens.
