UDC 332.025.12: 338.439.027
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2024.10.07.001

Authors

Aleksey I. Boldyasov,
Oksana S. Karashсhuk,
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The paper examines the reasons for the increase in prices for wheat flour in the context of relatively stable prices for wheat, which is the raw material for the production of wheat flour. During the analysis of the Russian wheat flour market, it was found that as a result of the introduction of export duties on wheat, starting from mid-2021, the volumes of production and export of wheat flour increased. At the same time, a gap arose between the growth in prices for raw materials and for the goods produced from them, with a significantly greater increase in the latter. A regression analysis of the elasticity of prices for wheat flour in relation to wheat prices showed a moderate relationship between the indicators under consideration, so it was concluded that there are other significant factors forming a gap between the dynamics of raw material prices and changes in the prices of the goods produced from them. The study of the relationship between domestic prices for wheat flour and import prices in countries where Russian supply volumes are significant (Armenia and Georgia) allowed us to come to the conclusion about the significant influence of the dynamics of foreign trade prices in these countries on domestic prices, since a significant cointegration of the indicators under consideration was discovered. Ultimately, it was determined that the increase in the gap between the growth of prices for wheat flour and the increase in prices for wheat cannot be considered the result of unjustified and speculative overpricing by raw material processors. The influence of external factors on domestic prices, in particular, the growth of prices for import supplies in countries where Russian supply volumes are significant on a market scale, is decisive and it is with this factor that a more significant increase in prices for wheat flour relative to the increase in prices for wheat should be associated. Therefore, measures of state regulation of prices for goods from processed raw materials on the domestic market of Russia should be introduced under the condition of the presence of a significant difference in the growth of prices for raw materials and the product of their processing and the absence of the same dynamics of foreign trade prices on markets with significant volumes of Russian supplies.

Keywords

wheat flour, wheat, the law of a one price (LOP), antitrust regulation, price elasticity, export, prices.