UDC 338.24
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.04.14.007
Authors
Artem D. Zakharov,
Moscow University A. S. Griboyedov, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
In the modern VUCA environment (instability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) Crisis
management is being transformed from reactive practices into a proactive strategic system. The article
explores the evolution of crisis management: from response models (S. Fink) to preventive approaches
based on «weak signals» (I. Ansoff), the concept of «antifragility» (N. Taleb) and organizational resistance.
Heterogeneity of crises (economic, social, technological, environmental, combined), requiring interdisciplinary
solutions, is recognized as a key challenge.
The types of uncertainty (stochastic, structural, exogenous, endogenous) and the corresponding
management tools are analyzed: from probabilistic analysis to scenario planning. The role of risk management
as a strategic core integrating SWOT, PEST(EL) analysis, stress testing and the formation of a risk-oriented
culture based on transparency and learning from mistakes is emphasized.
Special attention is paid to artificial intelligence (AI) as a tool of prediction and adaptation: machine
learning (XGBoost, Random Forest) for crisis forecasting, generative models in logistics, digital twins for threat
simulation. The ethical risks of AI (discrimination, «black box») and principles of responsible implementation
(fairness, explainability, participation) are outlined.
The conclusions emphasize the need for a cybernetic approach that combines the algorithmic precision of
AI with human intuition and cultural transformation. Key recommendations include the introduction of flexible
structures, digital doubles, scenario planning and the development of the «digital courage» of managers.
Keywords
Crisis management, risk management, artificial intelligence, VUCA environment, organizational resilience, antifragility, uncertainty, digital twins, scenario planning, adaptive management, AI ethics, cybernetic resilience, risk-oriented culture
