LIMITS OF RESILIENCE OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS: ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF SYSTEMIC SHOCKS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADAPTATION MECHANISMS

UDC 330.131
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.05.10.010

Authors

Albina S. Danilova,
Krasnoyarsk Institute of Railway Transport – Krasnoyarsk Branch of Irkutsk State University of Railway Transport, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Natalia N. Grigorieva,
Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after Professor V. F. Voino-Yasenetsky, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Svetlana V. Zdrestova-Zakharenkova,
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

Abstract

This article is devoted to a comprehensive assessment of the limits of sustainability of global supply chains in the face of systemic shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, sanctions restrictions and logistics failures. Using a mixed methodological approach, including econometric modeling, agent-based simulation and panel data analysis for key sectors of the Russian economy, the author identifies critical thresholds of the recovery time (MTTR), the level of safety stocks and the degree of supplier diversification, above which chains lose the ability to self-heal and enter the restructuring phase. It is shown that sustainability is determined not only by the physical topology of the network, but also by the degree of digitalization, management elasticity and the consistency of information flows. The article formulates practical recommendations for building adaptive risk management strategies, including the development of nearshoring mechanisms, the implementation of predictive analytics and the creation of reserve logistics capacities. The results obtained can be used both in corporate anti-crisis planning practices and in the formation of macroeconomic policies for sustainable development.

Keywords

supply chain sustainability, systemic shocks, economic consequences, MTTR, safety stock, digitalization of logistics