PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS – THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES AND FOREIGN EXPERIENCE

UDC 338.431.7 + 502.3
DOI: 10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2025.05.12.015

Authors

Stanislav O. Siptits,
Irina A. Romanenko,
Natalya E. Evdokimova,
A. A. Nikonov All–Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics – Branch of the All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The article examines theoretical and methodological approaches to the problem of planning scenarios for the development of socio-economic systems in Russia and abroad. The article shows that a systems approach to analyzing options for sustainable development of regional agro-food systems allows describing external and internal threats, identifying possible risks and uncertainties in the external environment. When developing scenario projects, forecasts can be used as initial information. At the same time, scenario projects can serve as a basis for developing strategic plans for the sustainable development of regional agrofood systems in the long term.
Highlights:
– abroad, the three most famous scientific schools in the field of scenario planning are: “intuitive logic” (ILM), “long-term plan” (LP), and “probabilistic modified tendencies” (PMT);
– scenarios describing the development of socio-economic systems are alternative futures that result from a combination of observed historical trends and the policies that these trends can change to achieve a given goal or obtain a desired outcome;
– scenario planning is a methodology for presenting possible futures, exploring management and policy decisions that can help achieve sustainable development of regional agro-food systems in the medium and long term.

Keywords

Scenarios, planning and forecasting, regional agro-food systems, theoretical and methodological approaches