Authors
A.O. NEDOSEKIN, V.V. GRAPES
Abstract
Purpose: the task is to analyze the functional survivability of a technical system (TS) according to the results of the application of a wide range of adverse external influences (HB) to it. The focus is on assessing the conservation of the stability properties of the functioning of the vehicle in dynamics, taking into account measures to partially restore the performance of the vehicle after HB. Methods: we consider a vehicle that has undergone a single HB, in which the process of gradual functional degradation is launched during the deployment of the secondary consequences of HB. At the same time, the survivability (coolant) means given to the system develop their own activity associated with the restoration of system elements. As a result, the behavior of the system after HB can be represented by a semi-Markov graph model with fuzzy constant parameters. In the analysis of this graph, using numerical methods, it is possible to obtain a fuzzy-probabilistic survival function of the system and to evaluate the functional operational risk (ER) of the event when the probability of survival of the vehicle R is lower than the norm-permissible level L. It turns out that a technique for numerically solving nonlinear ( in the general case) systems of differential (or integral) equations with fuzzy parameters. In a number of special cases, it is permissible to use the technique of one-dimensional direct and inverse Laplace-Carson transforms. Results: the numerical methods used make it possible to restore the fuzzy function R (t) of system survival and to triangulate it. This representation allows us to quantify the risk of survivability level going down beyond the set normative boundary. FER (t), along with R (t), is an integral indicator of the survivability of a vehicle. Conclusions: the combination of probabilistic and fuzzy-probabilistic approaches to the analysis of the dynamic functional survivability of technical systems of arbitrary designation allows one to obtain reasonable estimates of the risk of survivability loss as a function of time.
Keywords
technical system (TS), dynamic functional survivability, means of ensuring survivability (coolant), secondary effects of HB, functional and operational risk (FER), fuzzy numbers, soft calculations.
