Authors
G. A. SHCHERBAKOV
Abstract
The article is an attempt to comprehend the causes and consequences of economic crises, classify them by the nature of the formulating processes, and also give an economic and mathematical justification for the scientific conclusions of the proposed study. The article highlights the results of a retrospective analysis of the development of the world economy for the period from the industrial revolution of the XVII century to the present. The revealed regularities allow us to form a hypothesis explaining the reasons for the differences in economic phenomena at different stages of a long-term cyclic process. The conclusions presented in the article are based on the results of processing a wide array of unique statistical data for more than two hundred years of development of the world economy. A significant part of the work is devoted to verification of conclusions, studies through economic and mathematical modeling using the software platform "Analytics", the intellectual basis of which is the methodology of regularizing Bayesian approach (modification of the traditional Bayesian approach).
Keywords
Economic development, crisis, recession, systemic economic crisis, economic model, regularizing Bayesian approach.
