ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DECISION OF DIRECT AND REVERSE PROBLEM OF CALCULATION OF UNCERTAINTY MEASURE IN “SOFT” CALCULATIONS

Authors

V.A. FORMER

Abstract

An approach to solving the direct and inverse problems of calculating the measure of uncertainty in “soft” calculations in economics and finance is discussed, based on the probabilistic model of econometrics and the classical error theory dating back to Gauss. The definition of "soft" calculations is given in the framework of the paradigms of econometrics and the classical theory of errors. It is concluded that when conducting financial and economic calculations in a situation of uncertainty, one should not ignore the approach of econometrics and the classical theory of errors, which delivers elegant, proven by centuries of practice and easy to interpret results within the framework of a very easy probabilistic model.

Keywords

soft calculations, fuzzy set, measure of the uncertainty of the source information, econometrics, error theory, probabilistic model.