Authors
V.A. FORMER
Abstract
An approach to solving the direct and inverse problems of calculating the measure of uncertainty in "soft" calculations in economics and finance is discussed, based on a probabilistic model of the classical error theory that goes back to Gauss. The definition of "soft" calculations is given in the framework of the paradigms of econometrics and the classical theory of errors. It is concluded that when conducting financial and economic calculations in a situation of uncertainty, one should not ignore the approach of econometrics and the classical theory of errors, which delivers elegant, proven by centuries of practice and easy to interpret results within the framework of a very easy probabilistic model.
Keywords
Soft calculations, fuzzy set, measure of the uncertainty of the initial information, econometrics, error theory, probabilistic model.
