UDC 303.442

Authors

A.A. KHACHATURYAN, S.V. PONOMAREVA, K.I. BOKOVA

Abstract

The article is devoted to the current problem of cognitive modeling in industrial enterprises. The purpose of the article is to analyze the use of cognitive modeling in industrial enterprises. A comparison of the opinions of domestic and foreign authors about the cognitive model is given. The basic theoretical aspects of cognitive modeling, unsolved problems in the field of modeling are considered. The advantages and disadvantages of the cognitive method are highlighted. It was noted that it was difficult for enterprise managers to use cognitive modeling, despite numerous studies and ease of use. The authors identified a trend towards the development of cognitive modeling in industry. So, the article gives examples of the application of cognitive models and technologies at the enterprises of the oil and gas industry as a whole, at PJSC Gazprom Neft and scientific research. The authors focus on the essence of cognitive maps in the work. Examples of constructing cognitive maps by indicators, by factors and indicators are given. The authors revealed that for the flow of business processes it is necessary to highlight the most promising branches of science and technology in Russia, based on the forecast of long-term scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030. In turn, the authors analyzed the dynamics of GDP in accordance with the forecast of long-term socio-economic development in three versions: conservative, moderately optimistic and forced with a forecast up to 2030. The authors constructed a cognitive map of the systems and their blocks in the sectors of energy conservation and energy efficiency of making relevant decisions based on the Concept of energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement adopted in 2010 for the period 2011–2020. PJSC Gazprom identified causal relationships between systems and their units. It was concluded that cognitive modeling is a promising area in industry.

Keywords

cognitive modeling, management decisions, industrial enterprises, planning, forecast.