PROSPECTS FOR POLITICAL INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

UDC 004.02: 321.01

Authors

M. S. KOSTIN
Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosov, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The article considers the issue of political integration in the European Union over the past three decades. We study both relations between states and the pace of integration processes, to measure which we use the Bayesian methodology for constructing normalized scales with dynamic constraint, which allows us to present non-quantitative indicators on a graph in order to assess the dynamics of processes. The author comes to the conclusion that in the first decade under review, the integration is developing steadily, then stagnation occurs due to the increase in the heterogeneity of the association. The migration crisis that erupted in 2015 revealed the existing contradictions and led to a slowdown in the pace of integration development and an increase in disintegration trends, a manifestation of which are Brexit and the success of Eurosceptics.

Keywords

European Union, political integration, Bayesian intellectual dimensions, global dimensions, Euroscepticism, EU enlargement, systems analytics.