SIMULATION MODELING OF INVESTMENT PROJECT RISKS IN OIL PRODUCTION

UDC 330.4: 622.24

Authors

L. V. Gusarova
Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Accounting and Auditing, Kazan Innovative University named after V.G. Timiryasova, Kazan, Russia
L. N. Krasnova
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Economics and Enterprise Management, Almetyevsk State Oil Institute, Almetyevsk, Russia
A. R. Makhmutshina
Student, Almetyevsk State Oil Institute, Almetyevsk, Russia

Abstract

This article uses the practical application of Monte Carlo simulation. Two scenarios of project implementation are considered – comparable effects from them. The characteristic of the Bashkir layer of the Arkhangelsk field, the estimated technical and economic effect of the measures taken are given. Risks are modeled and the value of information is estimated by the VOI method (information value). The evaluation of the effectiveness of the project on the technical and economic indicators of the enterprise.

Keywords

Risk, Simulation modeling