USING SOCIAL MEDIA DATA FOR PROBABLE CALCULATIONS USING SCENARIOUS MODELING METHODS: RESULTS OF ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNS

UDC 004.942
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2021.02.003

Authors

Azarov Artur Alexandrovich
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, researcher ITMO University, Russia
Suvorova Alena Vladimirovna
Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor HSE University, Russia
Brodovskaya Elena Victorovna
Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia
Vasileva Olga Victorovna
Graduate Student SPSU, Russia
Azarova Victoria Alexandrovna
Assistant SPC RAS

Abstract

The article presents the application of scenario modeling methods to assess the potential for scaling electoral support for political parties through digital communications (communities in social networks) based on data obtained from social networks. An analysis of communities in several social networks was carried out, various indicators were downloaded, reflecting the activity of both communities and users of such communities. Based on these data, various aggregates were calculated. Then a software package was developed that implements scenario modeling based on various identified indicators. The scenarios provide for the development of groups in social networks, depending on the activity of these groups. In this case, the activity is given by a random variable with a normal distribution. To test the developed algorithms, indicators of political communities in social networks were used.

Keywords

Scenario modeling
Social networks
Digital communication