UDC 519.8
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2021.06.003

Authors

Roman A. Zhukov
Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Maria A. Plinskaya
3rd year student of the direction «Business Informatics», Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia

Abstract

The aim of the study is to test the hypothesis about the possibility of using models of the functioning of hierarchical socioeconomic systems for a shortterm forecast. The models of the power multiplicative form – production functions describing the dependence of the volume of the gross domestic product by region on the cost of fixed production assets, the average annual number of employees and investments in fixed assets for the section «Manufacturing» (NACE) are considered. Three types of models based on data for the regions of the Central Federal District for 2007–2018 were tested. The parameters of the first model used in calculating the standards for each of the regions were found using OLS for a combined sample for a set of regions. The parameters of the models of the second type were obtained from the data for each of the regions separately by solving the optimization problem taking into account the constraints on changes in the coefficients of the model of the first type with a 95% confidence probability. The parameters of the models of the third type were found from samples for each of the regions without taking into account constraints on the coefficients of the model using OLS. A comparative analysis of the calculated (according to three models) and actual values of the gross domestic product by region volume was carried out using the average relative error according to the 2019 data for each of the regions and the district as a whole. With the exception of the Moscow region, all values fall within the specified range of values predicted by the normative model. The hypothesis is partially confirmed.

Keywords

Digital model
Hierarchical socio-economic system
Model
Production function
Forecast, standard
Assessment
Gross domestic product by region