USING THE CAPACITIVE METHOD FOR ANALYZING SOCIAL EVENTS

UDC 330.42 (045), 5177 (045)
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2021.06.008

Authors

Yuriy A. Korablev
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department «System Analysis in Economics», Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Polina S. Golovanova
Student, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Tatyana A. Kostritsa
Student, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

An example of the analysis of rare events using the capacitive method is given. Events are considered as filling a certain capacity, like a cup of patience, on the basis of which it is possible to restore the resulting function of the difference between incoming and outgoing disturbance flows. Several functions of the effect of the event are considered, as well as an interpretation of the results obtained, for example, the rate of accumulation of dissatisfaction with social policy.

Keywords

rare events
capacitive method
social events
color revolutions
integral spline
the speed of preparation for the uprising
the rate of accumulation of discontent

The study was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of scientific project No. 19-010-00154