UDC 519.226
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2022.06.002
Authors
Zvyagin L.S.
PhD of Economics, Associate Professor, Financial University under the Government of the Russian
Federation, Associate Professor of the Department "System analysis in economics", Moscow, Russia
Abstract
When studying complex socio-economic systems, there is a high degree of uncertainty, which leads to the need to introduce the concept of subjective probability and a vague set into the model. The concept of subjective probability implies personal beliefs and the degree of personal faith of an individual, which control the probability of a possible occurrence of some event. Under conditions of uncertainty, one of the consistent methods of mathematical reasoning when working with numerical information is the Bayesian approach, in which the randomness of parameters is interpreted as a property of the real world and that objects are subject to continuous unforeseen changes. According to this approach, estimates of random parameters are not random, based on this, the search for these estimates is carried out.
Keywords
Bayesian approach, Modeling, Probabilities and risks, Socio-economic systems
