UDC 910.1: 51-7
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2022.11-2.002
Authors
Andrey А. Privalov
Doctor of Military Sciences, Professor, Saint Petersburg University of railway engineering,
Military Academy of communication named after S. M. Budyonny, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Vadim A. Kolesov
Candidate of Military Sciences, Associate Professor, Military Academy of communication
named after S. M. Budyonny, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Abstract
The article proposes a mathematical model of the process of preparing a geoinformation monitoring system in predicting the development of a regional natural emergency. It is based on the use of the method of topological transformation of stochastic networks. A feature of the obtained solution is the result of comparing the initial data with the reference function, which makes it possible to determine the time for the implementation of the simulated process of predicting the development of a regional natural emergency. The developed algorithm is based on a model of interaction between the main parameters of the occurrence of a regional natural emergency and the possibility of using a geoinformation monitoring system. On the basis of the analysis carried out, quantitative estimates of the duration of the preparation interval for the geoinformation monitoring system were obtained.
Keywords
Heterogeneity of parameter values, State of uncertainty
