UDC 519.8
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2022.11-2.003
Authors
Roman A. Zhukov
Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor
of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Financial University under the Government
of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Evgeny V. Grigoriev
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Tula Region,
Ministry of Economic Development of the Tula Region
Maria A. Plinskaya
4rd year student of the direction "Business Informatics", Financial University under the Government
of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Maria A. Zhelunitsina
4rd year student of the direction "Business Informatics", Financial University under the Government
of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Abstract
The aim of the study is to evaluate and analyze the dynamics of mortality in the Tula region on the basis of Bayesian intelligent technologies. The actual values of the number of deaths are transferred to the linguistic scale, which makes it possible to assess and analyze the mortality rate within the nine classes formed. The constructed model of mortality dynamics allowed us to conclude about the probable future trend of the indicator. A comparative analysis of the forecast results for four variants with the actual value of the mortality rate in 2021 allowed us to conclude that the presented forecasting methodology can be used.
Keywords
Demography, Model, Mortality, Assessment, Bayesian intelligent technologies, Forecast
