FORECASTING THE MORTALITY RATE OF THE POPULATION IN THE TULA REGION, ACCORDING TO INFLUENCED FACTORS

UDC 519.8
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2023.04.002

Authors

Roman A. Zhukov,
Doctor of Economics Sciences, Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Evgeny V. Grigoriev,
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Tula Region, Ministry of Economic Development of the Tula Region
Maria A. Plinskaya,
4rd Year Student of the Direction «Business Informatics», Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia
Maria A. Zhelunitsina,
4rd Year Student of the Direction «Business Informatics», Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Tula Branch), Tula, Russia

Abstract

The aim of the study is to predict the mortality of the population of Tula region, considering the influencing factors. The analysis and prediction are carried out with the help of Bayesian intelligent technologies. The actual values of influencing factors are transferred to the numerical and linguistic scales, which makes it possible to predict the corresponding values. Based on the Bayesian convolution, the integral indicator «the number of dead» is calculated taking into account the factors. The obtained result is compared with the results of predicting the number of deaths without regard to the influencing factors.

Keywords

Demography, Mortality, Bayesian intelligent technology, Influencing factors, Forecast, Analysis, Population, Tula region