ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RETROSPECTIVE EVENTS (VERIFICATION OF M.I. TUGAN-BARANOVSKY'S THESIS ON INDICATIVE PROPERTIES OF IRON PRICES)

UDC 330.51
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2023.06.001

Authors

Elizaveta G. Shcherbakova,
Member of the Temporary Scientific and Practical Group, Moscow State Linguistic University

Abstract

The problem of improving economic forecasting systems remains unresolved and is critically important for ensuring economic growth and sustainability of the global economic system in the future. M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky suggested that the dynamics of prices for iron, which is the main component of the production of means of production, can become an indicator of the economic situation. This assumption formed the basis of a study conducted using the Infoanalytic software package based on the methodology of soft mathematical measurements and a regularizing Bayesian approach. The results of the verification of the idea of an outstanding Russian economist are presented in this article.

Keywords

Economic forecasting, Method of leading factors, Soft measurements, Regularizing Bayesian approach