UDC 930.1
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2023.09.003
Authors
Ivan N. Drogobytskiy,
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor of the System Analysis in Economics Department
of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The current economic situation makes the processes of forecasting
the world market conditions more difficult. As well as the
planning of own production. Low reliability of the available statistical
data, significant narrowing of the logistical possibilities
for importing the necessary components and exporting the
manufactured marketable products make the traditional methods
of economic modeling and planning "from what has already been achieved" almost useless. It is necessary to expand the informational
and methodological instruments for forecasting and
planning production under conditions of uncertainty.
The first obvious direction of such an extension is to use the
technique of predictions and expectations. It turns out that both
have a welldefined
material basis and are amenable to scientific
research. This article analyzes the possibilities of modeling the
processes of birth, development, fulfillment and refutation of
predictions and expectations, which can be included in the existing
schemes for the development and adoption of planned decisions
as compensatory mechanisms for the current uncertainty.
Keywords
System analysis, Reinforcing link, Balancing link, Proactive link, System internal climate, Rumor spreading, Initial impulse, Mobilization of efforts
