Bayesian approach in economic and mathematical modeling

UDC 621.3.08

Authors

Zaslavskaya V. L.
Candidate of Technical Sciences, a deputy Chairman of the "Artifial Intelligence" Committee of "RUSSOFT" Association, CEO Officeverse LLC, COO Zello Russia

Abstract

The article investigates the problem of estimating unknown parameters of economic and mathematical models using the Bayesian paradigm for processes with varying degrees of uncertainty. It is the Bayesian approach that makes it possible to more accurately evaluate models in conditions when statistical data have different types of probability distributions, as well as to choose the best model from a variety of evaluated candidates. The advantage of this approach is also the possibility of its application to the processing of statistical samples of relatively small sizes, as well as in the presence of data gaps.

Keywords

economic models, Bayesian approach, analysis and modeling, uncertainty and risks, solution methods.