UDC 331.5
Authors
M. V. SERGEEVA,
junior Researcher,
Candidate of Economic Sciences
All-Russian Research Institute of Labor
of the Ministry of Labor of Russia
Abstract
Relevance. The number of the economically active population (labor force) changes cyclically, as a signal integrating
other impulses, aimed at achieving a balance in the economy under the influence of various social, economic, socioeconomic
and other factors. So, for example, the demand for labor force is associated with the life cycle of enterprises, in
the sectoral context - with the resource cycle, as well as with the life cycles of qualifications, cycles of the socio-economic
process, business cycles, etc.
The purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to conduct a primary assessment of the labor force changes
with respect to the economic cycle in Russia in terms of pro- or countercyclical nexus. For this purpose, methods of
econometric analysis (regression analysis, correlation analysis) are used to evaluate the effect of economic activity on
labor force in Russia, 2002–2020.
Results. The analysis showed that the changes in the labor force in Russia relative to the movement of the economic
cycle are driven by a procyclical orientation, expressed in the delayed positive impact of the growth of economic activity
on the labor force. On the other hand, there is a restraining effect of economic cycle indicators on labor force growth. The results of the study indirectly indicate the determining role of the number of employed people in the formation of
procyclical dependence of labor force.
Keywords
labor force, employment, unemployment, cycles, economic cycles, economically active population.
