UDC 622.34; 622.7
Authors
Odgerel Sambuu
Graduate student basic department of Digital Economy of the Institute
of the information Society Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow, Russia, Federation
Abstract
The most important parameter that affects the functioning of mining companies is the price of produced products. Copper is a commodity that is widely used in electrical engineering, construction, chemical industry, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and other industries. Therefore, copper prices reflect well the state of the global economy as a whole and are an indicator of expectations for future capital construction around the world. At the same time, the price of copper is subject to significant fluctuations that have a significant impact on the performance of mining companies. Therefore, the subject of research is the methods of forming the production program of the mining and processing plant, which take into account the uncertainty of prices for the extracted products. The purpose of the research is to develop tools for forming the production program of a mining and processing plant in the conditions of uncertainty in prices for extracted products. As the main mathematical models that describe prices in commodity and financial markets, models based on the Brownian motion model are used: arithmetic Brownian motion, geometric Brownian motion, Brownian motion with a return to the mean, Brownian motion with jumps, as well as various combinations of these models and discrete analogues, such as the binomial model. The statistical analysis of copper prices shows that the geometric Brownian motion model does not take into account such features as sharp price spikes caused by unpredictable events or news, as well as changes in volatility over time. As a result, the probability distribution of logarithmic daily differences in copper prices differs slightly from the normal probability distribution. In the article the method of formation of the program of mining and processing plant in terms of uncertainty of prices for produced products, which is based on the description of the random changes in copper prices using a binomial model and solving the linear programming problem variables are the volumes of production and inventory of copper concentrate. The conclusions and results of the study are aimed at using in the preparation of decisions on the formation of the production program of mining enterprises. The analysis and management tools created by the author will improve the efficiency of decisions made.
Keywords
Economic and mathematical model, Copper ore mining, Copper prices, Binomial model, Linear programming
