FEATURES OF USING THE BAYESIAN APPROACH TO IDENTIFY PROBLEMS OF ANALYZING STATISTICS OF SITUATIONS OF VARIOUS PROCESSES AND FINDING THEIR SOLUTIONS

UDC 004.8
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2021.11.003

Authors

Zvyagin L.S.
PhD of Economics, Associate Professor, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Associate Professor of the Department "System analysis in economics", Moscow, Russia

Abstract

With insufficient knowledge of the consequences and the presence of uncertainty in the operations performed, making the most correct decision in management is the most significant difficulty. Both in the scientific field and in business, making the most competent decision in the event of uncertainty is an important task. No matter how the information is studied in detail, the presence of some uncertainty remains a negative element, whether it is planning the amount of resources, creating a new enterprise or financing an economic industry. The difference between statistics and the Bayesian method lies in the distribution of the parameter by random, rather than constant variables. For small samples, the Bayesian method is much more preferable to the classical one, since the conclusions are obtained most accurately. This method is provided in economic modeling. To understand the Bayesian method based on the occurrence of an event, it should be considered in contrast to the classical method.

Keywords

Bayesian networks
Modeling
Analysis
Model parameters
Bayesian approach