UDC 631.37.003.13
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2022.06.003
Authors
Sadykova Z.F.
Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Financial University under the Government
of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Abaev V.A.
Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Department of Data Analysis and Machine Learning,
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The article presents methodological approaches to interpreting the results obtained as a result of modeling the operational reliability parameters of the production assets of organizations by Markov chains with discrete states and continuous time, calculated using the system of Kolmogorov's fuzzy differential equations. Fuzzy values of the parameters of the probabilities of work, probabilities of failures form the value of the risk of excess of the probability of failures over the probability of work. The methodology takes into account the factor of importance of the functioning of machines and the acceptability of risk by introducing a weighting formula to form the final risk assessment of the functioning of production assets.
Keywords
Uncertainty, Probability of failures, Probability of operation, Fuzzy set, Fuzzy risk estimates, Criteria folding, Weighting formula
