UDC 504
DOI: 10.36871/2618-9976.2022.10.005
Authors
Andrey А. Privalov
Doctor of Military Sciences, Professor, Saint Petersburg University of railway engineering,
Military Academy of communication named after S. M. Budyonny, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Vadim А. Kolesov
Candidate of Military Sciences, Associate Professor, Military Academy of communication
named after S. M. Budyonny, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Abstract
The article proposes a generalized algorithm for predicting the
place, time, scale of a possible economic crisis situation of various
origins for use in the interests of ensuring the functioning
of the information system of a constituent entity of the Russian
Federation in the event of a threat of an economic crisis situation
of a regional nature. It is based on the use of the method of correlation
data analysis. A feature of the obtained solution is the
result of comparing the initial data with the reference function,
which makes it possible to determine the time for the implementation
of the simulated process of predicting the development
of a crisis situation of a different nature.
The developed algorithm is based on the interaction model
of the main parameters of the emergence of an economic crisis
situation (ECS). On the basis of the analysis carried out, quantitative
estimates of the duration of the interval of development
of individual elements of the ECS with its possible development
were obtained.
Keywords
Algorithm, Forecasting, Time series, Correlation function, Economic crisis situation
